The 0-Baseline WAR Calculation: Each player's raw production from boxscore statistics is converted into a value rating. We then subtract a positional replacement-level threshold. Finally, the rate is scaled by a mathematically optimized variance factor to convert it into an authentic win share, similar to WAR in baseball.

Expected Wins: We enter the team's accumulated roster PACE into a standard regression formula to convert cumulative player impact into expected wins in the standings. Under this framework, a theoretical roster consisting entirely of replacement-level talent mathematically projects to a baseline floor of minimal wins per season.

Expected Ties & Losses: Regression analysis reveals a direct correlation between Goaltending PACE and tie rates, as elite goaltending acts as a survival mechanism that actively preserves lower-scoring games into overtime. The engine calculates an expected tie rate derived from total goaltender workload and efficiency, and assigns the remaining schedule balance to the loss column.

• +3.00 and up (All-American / Hobey Baker contender): The national elite. Only one or two ECAC players reach it in a typical season. ECAC Hobey Baker finalists have a median around +3.1, and most of Union's All-American seasons fall between +2.8 and +4.0.
• +2.25 to +2.99 (All-ECAC First or Second Team): Top-line forwards and top-pair defensemen who drive results. First Team skaters have a median around +2.65 and Second Team around +2.25. Roughly the top 3–4% of everyday players.
• +1.60 to +2.24 (All-ECAC Third Team / All-Rookie): Strong top-six forwards and top-four defensemen. Third Team skaters have a median around +1.75 and All-Rookie picks around +1.6. Roughly the next 10% of everyday players.
• +0.75 to +1.59 (Every-night regular): Where the typical everyday ECAC player sits: the median for players with 20 or more games is +0.75 and the average is about +0.9. Middle-six minutes, secondary scoring and a solid positive impact. About a third of everyday players.
• 0.00 to +0.74 (Depth and role players): Positive but limited value: fourth-liners, third-pair defensemen, underclassmen finding their way and players moving in and out of the lineup. Roughly half of everyday players land here.
• Below 0 (Below replacement): Rare, under 1% of everyday players: a season whose results fell short of what a replacement-level call-up would provide. Most often a goalie's rough year.

PACE is a season total, so these ranges are for a full season; partial seasons land lower. Goalie seasons swing more widely: ECAC First Team goalies have a median around +3.1, while a typical starter sits near +0.8.

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